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Oct 22,2009
UN World Urbanization Prospects: 2011 Revision
+ Brandon Fuller
Nate Berg brings our attention to the UN’s 2011 revision of its World Urbanization Prospects. As Berg points out, the fact that the world is now predominately urban is old news – we crossed the 50% urban threshold back in 2010. What stands out for Berg in the 2011 revision is the fact that, over the next 40 years, nearly all of the action in urbanization will occur in less developed regions:
Because a city is costly to build, much of its infrastructure will last for decades. Romer argues that investors will not bite without a steady (Canadian? Norwegian?) hand on the tiller.Perhaps he is right, but there is another angle to charter cities, which offer the opportunity to experiment with new rules that do not apply elsewhere. Cities such as Singapore and Hong Kong have prospered because the rules there have been conducive to doing business. Perhaps countries do not really need to outsource new cities; perhaps a special economic zone will be credible enough.
In other words, the 2011 revision suggests that the world’s cities will add another 2.7 billion people over the next 40 years – 2.4 billion of whom will end up in cities located in less developed regions. Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa will add more than 700 million residents by 2050, as will cities on the Indian Sub-Continent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh).
Because this wave of urbanization will occur primarily in the world’s less developed regions, it brings with it a tremendous opportunity to improve governance and reduce poverty. Never before have urban areas, and the public policy choices therein, been more critical to human progress.
Learn more by visiting the UN’s online database of urbanization projections.